• NZD/USD edged slightly lower on Thursday after renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on risk sentiment, following U.S. military action against Iran.
• Market sentiment deteriorated further as hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal faded, while former President Trump signaled the possibility of intensified military action.
• U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth stated that American forces may target additional strategic facilities, with reports of explosions across multiple locations in Iran reinforcing concerns of further escalation...
• On the macro front, U.S. inflation data showed May CPI rising 4.2% year-on-year, with energy prices identified as a key driver, keeping inflationary pressures elevated.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets in July, and markets imply an 85% probability it will hike by 25 basis points to 2.50%. Investors see a further two moves to 3.0% by year-end, and an ultimate top around 3.5%.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5861(50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5873(SMA 20).
• Support is seen at 0.5772(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5758(61.8%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5800 with stop loss of 0.5860 and target price of 0.5760
