• NZD/USD edged lower on Monday as risk sentiment deteriorated after U.S.-Iran peace talks over the weekend ended without agreement, triggering renewed safe-haven demand for the dollar.
•Investor concerns escalated further after President Donald Trump signaled a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a deeper global energy crisis and reinforcing risk-off flows that typically weigh on commodity-linked currencies like the New Zealand dollar.
•While recent hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand initially supported the kiwi, their impact is now fading as geopolitical risks dominate market direction and overshadow domestic monetary policy expectations.
•Looking ahead, markets will focus on New Zealand’s March electronic card retail sales data due Friday, with the previous reading at +1.4% month-on-month and +1.5% year-on-year, for further clues on domestic demand and economic momentum..
•From a technical perspective, NZD/USD failed to sustain a break above the 0.5839 level, suggesting a potential resumption of the broader downtrend as downside pressure builds.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5833(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5840(38.2%fib).
•Support is seen at 0.5811(50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5800(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5830 with stop loss of 0.5960 and target price of 0.5770
