FxWirePro: Polish lagging economic indicators still signal economic upswings – Pick up two high yielding EM crosses via optionality

Polish industrial output, retail sales and producer price data for December portrayed a still stable economic upswing, but one which still exhibits no sign of broader inflationary pressure despite the 7%-plus wage growth rate.

Industrial production for December was stable; the headline growth rate was weak mainly because of two fewer working days that month. We estimate that trend growth rate of swda output is running at a healthy 0.7% MoM.

Retail sales and producer price data were more dovish: retail sales data portrayed a lackluster festive season into year-end, and manufacturing prices fell by 0.3% MoM compared with the expectation of 0.1% decline.

That the economy is stable or strong at the moment is not new information - it is the continued subdued pricing, coupled with deflationary import price readings, which support the dovish guidance reiterated by key NBP policymakers earlier last week. We forecast modest rate hikes during H2 as our base-case, but the risk appears to be to the dovish side. At the margin, the data are mildly negative for the zloty.

Vol curves inverted in a handful of USD majors as front-end implieds spiked. Despite less attractive vol curve optics, we favor sell front/buyback calendar spreads in fundamentally sound non-USD crosses such as EURPLN & EURRUB that are less exposed to broad dollar volatility.

High yielding EMs unsurprisingly dominate the top of the table, but our interest lies more in pairs where the direction (call/put) of calendar spreads has stronger fundamental justification. EURPLN and EURRUB (both EUR puts/currency calls) are two that stand out at current prices: the European cyclical recovery is conducive to a gentle slide in EURPLN, while stronger oil prices and attractive yields should see persistent investor sponsorship of the ruble. -1M /+2M 4.13 strike EUR put/PLN call OT spreads (spot ref. 4.1705) and -1M /+2M 67.75 strike EUR.