FxWirePro: Quick Glance At Demand/Supply Equation of PGM Segment Commodities

The restrictions to contain the corona pandemic have hit many sectors of businesses quite hard. Evidently, the global markets shake off depth gauges, keep focused upon recovery, major DMs, including Eurozone, UK PMIs sink lower than projections.

As a result of this pandemic, the global light vehicle production now looks set to contract nearly 13% yoy, we have slashed our 2020 PGM demand forecasts.

The Amplats refinery outage as well as COVID-19 supply disruptions, mainly in South Africa, have stripped nearly 690 k oz of platinum and 356 k oz of palladium supply from our 2020 projections.

On balance, supply and demand disruptions have largely cancelled each other out for 2020, leaving a platinum market in surplus and a palladium market still in deficit.

We have boosted our palladium price forecasts ($2,337/oz for FY 2020) as supply outages will keep the market tighter for longer despite the demand weakness but have cut the platinum forecasts ($859/oz for FY 2020) as it has lagged the recent strength in other precious metals. Courtesy: JPM