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FxWirePro: S&P 500 earnings update

5 percent of the companies in S&P 500 have reported their Q4 earnings. Let’s take a look at the key takeaways,

Earnings:

  • So far, 70 percent of the companies that reported actual results, reported better than expected earnings. Only 30 percent of the companies reported worse than estimated earnings. The estimated earnings growth rate so far is 17.1 percent, which is the highest pace of growth since Q1 2011. At the end of December quarter, S&P500 forecasted 11.3 percent growth. So far, ten sectors have beaten that estimate.
  • All ten sectors are reporting better than expected earnings growth, with energy sector leading the way.
  • The new Tax reform is taking a toll on earnings of the financial sector companies, but lifting earnings of others.

Sales:

  • 74 percent of the companies reported higher sales than estimated, so far. Sales growth rate is at 7.3 percent, which is higher than 7 percent estimate.

Q1/Q2/Q3 forecast:

  • Earnings growth rate is estimated to be 17 percent in the first quarter of 2018, which would be the highest growth rate since q1 2011 when earnings grew by 19.5 percent. Earnings growth rate was estimated to be 11.4 percent at the end of 2018, which has been revised higher now with energy sector leading the revision.
  • So far in S&P500, 52 companies have issued negative guidance of Q1 2018, while 53 companies have issued positive guidance.
  • For Q2 2018, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 19 percent and revenue growth of 7.5% percent.
  • For Q3 2018, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 20.8 percent and revenue growth of 6.2 percent.

The current forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is at 16.5, higher than its 5-year average of 16.1 and 10-year average of 14.3

Better than expected earnings in 2017 have pushed all three, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ to all-time highs. S&P 500 is currently trading at 2624, while DOW is at 23933, and NASDAQ at 6915.

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