What is clear today though, is that the short-term pre-FOMC risk is of a break higher in EUR/USD for no obvious reasons than positions reduction, upon resultant forces Euro's gains against dollar to reach at 1.11 areas. Buying one touch binary calls would determine huge yields for sure.
On the contrary, with spot FX flashes of EURUSD at 1.1025 we see delta risk reversal for 1 week contracts have shown slight recovery signals but long term (1M-1Y) put contracts are on higher demand.
EURUSD has been in the list of top 3 pairs to perceive highest implied volatility of 1W at the money contracts among G20 currency space, almost close to 13%.
More importantly, the contracts of this pair for 3m-1y expiries show gradual increase in negative sentiments. So, from this computation what we could read is that EUR may gain until tomorrow's Fed's rate decision and thereafter eyeing on Yellen's statements we could foresee dollar's appreciation as quite certain event.
As a reminder, this higher IV represents how much movement today's FX market expects from EURUSD during US sessions and the life span of the option. In that respect, an option buyer is partially buying the market's expectations for this pair.
We would like to buy long term put back spreads contemplating the 25 delta risk reversals as the EURUSD's broader perspectives are weaker in long run.
If more price actions occur at the fat tails, the option trader will mark volatility higher for out-of-money (OTM) and in-the-money (ITM) options then at-the-money (ATM) options and so does happen with EURUSD pair currently.


FxWirePro: EUR/USD edges higher but rally stalls below post-NFP peak
AUDJPY Faces Headwinds: Selling on Rallies Advised as Bearish Trend Emerges
FxWirePro- Woodies pivot (Major)
FxWirePro- Major Pair levels and bias summary
NZDJPY Pullback: Bearish Trend Favors Sellers Below 92.50 Resistance
FxWirePro USD/JPY dips as Yen gains after Japan reaffirms FX intervention readiness
USDCHF Faces Downside Risk as Resistance Holds; Sell Rallies Recommended
FxWirePro: NZD/USD advances as weak U.S. payrolls pressure greenback
FxWirePro: USD/CAD slips on softer US payrolls but near-term direction hinges on 1.4154 support
FxWirePro: AUD/USD rallies as traders scale back Fed rate hike bets
ETHUSD Forms Double Bottom at $1500, Signaling Potential Bullish Reversal
BTCUSD Recovers Amid Easing Tensions, But Resistance Looms
GBPJPY Weakens Amid Yen Strength: Sell on Rallies Recommended
FxWirePro- Major Pair levels and bias summary
FxWirePro: USD/ZAR slips as weak U.S. Jobs data weighs on dollar
FxWirePro- Woodies pivot (Major)




