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FxWirePro: U.S. Natural gas inventory review

Despite lower production last year, natural gas inventory reached a record high of 4 trillion cubic feet in 2016, thanks to previous two week winters. This year, the winter in the United States was quite chilling but not sufficient to draw down this record inventory significantly. Hence, we had to retrace back from our long call, though two of our targets were reached ($3.1 per MMBtu and $3.7 per MMBtu). We had suspected the gas price to reach as high as $5.2 per MMBtu. While we maintain our bullish outlook over the longer horizon, for now, we think that the price would retrace further from current $3.17 per MMBtu; at least towards $2.7 per MMBtu.

  • According to latest numbers, working gas in the underground storage remains at 2.711 trillion cubic feet. The chart from EIA shows the level of inventory. The second chart from investing.com shows weekly draws in inventory and that clearly shows that we are past the peaks, and from now on the inventory draws would slow down.
  • Last week the inventory draw was 87 billion cubic feet and this week draw is expected at 153 billion cubic feet.
  • EIA will release the inventory report at 15:30 GMT.
  • Market Data
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