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• USD/JPY traded in a tight range on Wednesday, with market activity grinding to a near standstill as investors wind down the final trading sessions of 2025.
• Liquidity remains thin and price action subdued, reflecting widespread position-squaring and the absence of fresh catalysts.
• The close of the year caps a highly volatile and challenging period for the Japanese yen, which underperformed most major peers despite intermittent bouts of safe-haven demand and sporadic official rhetoric.
• Looking into 2026, the focus will shift squarely to diverging policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, as well as Japan’s fiscal policy stance, including the scope and timing of any additional stimulus measures.
• Immediate resistance is located at 157.69(23.6%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 158.12(Higher BB).
• Support is seen at 155.95(SMA 20) and break below could take the pair towards 155.59 (38.2%fib)
Recommendation: Good to sell around 155.80 with stop loss of 156.50 and target price of 154.50
