• USD/JPY remains range-bound as upside is constrained by intervention fears and downside limited by yield differentials and geopolitical risk.
• Market participants appear reluctant to chase the pair higher, largely due to concerns that Japanese authorities could step in around these levels to curb excessive yen weakness.
• Market speculation suggests Tokyo may have spent around $35 billion in efforts to support the yen, although authorities have not officially confirmed any intervention.
• Market participants remain on alert for the risk of Japanese intervention as USD/JPY trades near levels that have historically drawn official attention. Traders are especially cautious given Tokyo’s preference for acting during thin liquidity conditions
• On the fundamental side, the backdrop remains USD-supportive. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and fading expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts continue to underpin the dollar.
• Immediate resistance is located at 157.90 (38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 158.80(SMA 20).
• Support is seen at 156.83 (Lower BB)and break below could take the pair towards 155.74 (50%fib)
Recommendation: Good to sell around 159.30, with stop loss of 160.00 and target price of 158.70
