Schedules of data announcements in Russia:
Russian unemployment rate: It is scheduled to be realised shortly. It is surprisingly increased to 5.5 % in October from 5.2% in September to miss out market forecasts at 5.4%. It is the highest rate since May as the number of unemployed edged up while the number of employed and economically active people declined.
Retail Sales is also likely to be released shortly and it was decreased 11.70% YoY in October, following September's 10.4% drop, which was the lowest since January of 1999.
PPI is scheduled to be released for tomorrow, Producer Prices in Russia increased to 616.40 Index Points in October from 575.40 Index Points in September of 2015.
GDP YoY is expected to be released on 23rd December, Russia's economy shrank 3.7% YoY in October of 2015, worse than an initial forecast at 3.6% contraction and following a 3.8% drop in the previous month.
In the long-term, we still project USD/RUB to evidence a gradual move higher.
An investor with a bullish mindset often deploys this strategy and wants to capitalize on a modest advance in price of the USDRUB.
While no much change in CBR's monetary policy as rise in inflation compared to the previous month are still at the upper end of CBR's expectations, so in the absence of a severe decline in inflation prints, the implication is that any rate cutting cycle will be a mild one.
Hedging Framework:
So, buy 1% in the money +0.51 delta call with 1M expiry, simultaneously sell 1% out of the money call with 3D expiry.
If the investor's opinion is very bullish on this pair, it will generally prove more profitable to make a simple call purchase.
Risk Reward profile: An investor will also turn to this spread when there is discomfort with either the cost of purchasing and holding the long call alone, or with the conviction of his bullish market opinion.
Maximum loss for this spread will generally occur as USDRUB declines below the lower strike price. If both options expire out-of-the-money with no value, the entire net debit paid for the spread will be lost.
