• USD/ZAR firmed on Tuesday as the rand weakened amid caution over Middle East developments after President Donald Trump paused a planned attack on Iran.
· Trump said on Monday he had paused an attack on Iran to allow time for negotiations on a deal to end the war.
· Investor focus will turn to Wednesday’s April inflation data, with analysts expecting CPI to rise to 3.9% year-on-year from 3.1% in March, driven by Middle East war-related pressures.
· The statistics agency will also release March retail sales data on Wednesday, though analysts expect the figures to remain resilient as they precede the full impact of the war.
· Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand is heavily influenced by global market sentiment and has remained under pressure since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February.
• Immediate resistance is located at 16.702 (50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 16.816(Higher BB).
• Strong support is seen at 16.559 (SMA20) and break below could take the pair towards 16.456(61.8%fib).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 16.600 with stop loss of 16.400 and target price of 16.800
