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We get more data from Asia (IP and GDP from Singapore, Korea and Taiwan; China PMIs at the end of the week), which could provide clarity on whether the IP cycle is indeed bottoming out.
Despite these offsetting forces for the broad dollar, we continue to hold our USD longs vs. EM FX and high-beta G10 FX since,
- These are held mostly via options with defined downside
- Fed hinted that there is very little room for the market to expect rate hikes by the end of 2016 as the moderate pace of economic growth.
So, Stay cautiously long USD vs. EM FX and high-beta G10 FX held mostly via options with defined downside.
USD-vols are on the verge of bottoming out as central banks (ECB/BoJ) turn into realized vol generators and liquidity declines seasonally into year-end. Buy USD/PLN vs EUR/PLN vol spreads for a revival.
