FxWirePro- USDCAD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias - Bullish

 USDCAD holds above 1.3800 after the dovish Bank of Canada monetary policy. The central bank has kept its rates unchanged at 4.50% as expected. It has been said that inflation is falling as forecast and BOC will stop hiking rates for a few months. The policy divergence between the US fed and BOC would push the pair higher. It hits a high of 1.38170 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.38029.

US private sector has added 242000 jobs in Feb up from 119000,  above the estimate of 197000.

Major economic data today

US Initial jobless claims   (1:30 pm GMT)

  According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Mar surged to 76.4% from 31.4% a week ago.

Technically in the 4-Hour chart, the pair is holding above the short-term( 21- EMA), 55 EMA, and the long-term moving average of 1.34959 (200- EMA). Any violation above 1.3810 confirms further bullishness. A jump to  1.3850/1.3890 is possible.

WTI crude oil pared some of its gains on rate hike fears. Any daily close below $76.50 confirms minor weakness.

The near-term support is around 1.3740 and any breach below targets is 1.3700/1.3650.

Indicators (4-Hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

ADX- Bullish

It is good to buy on dips around 1.3760 with SL around 1.3720 for a TP of 1.3850.