FxWirePro- USDCAD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias - Neutral

USDCAD pared some of its gains after weak Canadian retail sales data. It rose modestly to 0.01% in June, compared to a forecast of 0%. Core retail sales dropped to -0.80% vs. an estimate of 0.30%.  Markets eye US Durable goods order and Fed chairman speech in Jackson Hole symposium. It hit an intraday high of 1.35493 and is currently trading around 1.35412.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep decreased to 86.5% from 88% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield falls more than 4% on dismal US flash PMI data. The  US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -78% from -66%.

Technically in the 4-Hour chart, the pair is holding below the short-term( 21- EMA), 55 EMA, and above the long-term moving average of 1.33898 (200- EMA). Any violation below 1.3480 confirms further bearishness. A dip to 1.3435/1.3400 is possible.

WTI crude oil rose more than $1 after a drop in oil inventory. Any break above $82.50 will push oil prices up to $85.  

The near-term resistance is around 1.3600 and any breach above targets is 1.3660/1.3700

Indicators (4-Hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

ADX- Neutral

It is good to buy on dips around 1.3500 with SL around 1.3435 for a TP of 1.3660.