USD/CHF: Resistance at 0.8620 Holds, Downside Pressure Persists
USDCHF declined sharply after weak US PPI data.It hits an intraday low of 0.80983 and is currently trading around 0.81207. Intraday bias appears to be bearish as long as the resistance 0.8260 holds.
In March 2025, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.4% after the price of final demand goods dropped by 0.9%, led mostly by a decrease in energy prices of 4.0%, since gasoline declined 11.1%; final demand foods declined by 2.1%, while goods excluding food and energy showed a modest increase of only 0.3%. The final demand services index declined by 0.2%, largely due to a 0.7% decline in trade service margins, while legal services increased by 1.5%. Over the last 12 months, the final demand index increased by 2.7% unadjusted, and this aggregate decline in producer inflation can influence Federal Reserve monetary policy, suggesting diminished demand or supply bottlenecks.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside
The pair is trading below the 34-EMA and below 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart indicating a minor up trend. The immediate resistance is at 0.8150 any break above targets 0.82250/0.8270/0.8320.
Support Levels and Potential Declines
On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8090, any violation below will drag the pair to 0.8050/0.8000.
Bearish Indicators
CCI (50) - Bearish
Directional movement Index - Neutral
Trading Strategy Recommendation
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8178-80 with a stop-loss at 0.82250 for a TP of 0.8000.
