• NZD/USD edged higher on Friday as narrower-than-expected New Zealand trade deficit supported kiwi dollar.
• New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed to NZD 257 million in February 2026, down from NZD 444 million a year earlier and better than the NZD 740 million deficit expected.
• The deficit was smaller than the NZ$470 million expected, boosting the Kiwi against the USD.
• However, weaker New Zealand GDP may limit upside, with growth slowing to 0.2% QoQ in Q4 from 0.9% in Q3.
• Markets see a 50% chance of an RBNZ hike in May, with further moves priced for September and December.
•This shift reflects worries that the recent surge in energy prices will push inflation well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range for much of the year.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5905(SMA20), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5927(61.8%fib).
•Support is seen at 0.5822(50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5788(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5900 with stop loss of 0.5980 and target price of 0.5860
