• NZD/USD slipped lower on Tuesday as markets reacted to shifting developments around the Iran conflict and sharp swings in oil prices.
• U.S. President Donald Trump stepped back from his Iran ultimatum, signaling “productive talks.” However, Iran denied such negotiations, leaving geopolitical uncertainty still elevated
• Oil climbed on Tuesday amid supply worries as Iran dismissed negotiations with the United States, opposing Trump’s remarks of imminent progress.
•The war has largely disrupted about 20% of global oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, even as two tankers headed for India transited on Monday.
• From a policy perspective, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman indicated that the central bank would only consider rate hikes if higher oil prices feed into sustained inflation, suggesting a cautious, data-dependent stance.
• Market participants are now watching for further guidance, with RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway scheduled to speak in Auckland on Wednesday, which could offer fresh signals on the policy outlook and inflation risks.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5893(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5922(61.8%fib).
•Support is seen at 0.5812(50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5746(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5830 with stop loss of 0.5900 and target price of 0.5760
