• NZD/USD initially dipped but recovered some ground on Monday as markets reacted to growing geopolitical uncertainty and heightened global market volatility.
•Oil prices surged sharply as storage capacity limits triggered production cutbacks, tightening supply. Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, warned crude could climb to $150 per barrel if disruptions persist.
• Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have led to rising casualties, widespread destruction, and a sharp surge in energy prices.
•Meanwhile, U.S. February nonfarm payrolls disappointed, showing -92K jobs versus +59K expected, raising concerns about the labor market outlook.
• On the domestic policy front, markets see an 80% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise its cash rate in September, with around 40 basis points of total tightening expected this year.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5917(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5941(March 4tg=h high).
•Support is seen at 0.5842(61.8%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5819(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5890 with stop loss of 0.5950 and target price of 0.5820
