GBPJPY Eyes 202 Breakout as BoE Signals Cautious Policy Path

GBPJPY pared some of its gains after the BOE monetary policy.  The intraday trend is bullish as long as the support at 199.40 holds. Currently, trading around 200.932, the pair reached an intraday high of 201.272.

Following a unanimous economist consensus and 97% market pricing for, on September 18, 2025, the Bank of England kept its official bank rate at 4.00%. No change after August's 25 basis point cut. Driven by persistent 3.8% inflation in August—matching July's high and fuelled by 5.1% food inflation and 4.8% wage growth—the MPC probably voted 7–2 to hold steady, with dissenting from Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor for a cut, forecasting inflation to reach Governor Andrew Bailey's "gradual and cautious" guidance means less than 30% probability of a year-end 4% in September, lingers above 2% till spring 2027. Reduction balances growth risks against persistent price pressures; while quantitative tightening may slow to £67.5–70 billion yearly amid market volatility,

The pair is trading below  55 and above 200 EMA  and  365 EMA (long-term) on the 1-hour chart, confirming a mixed trend.  Any violation below 200.70 indicates the intraday trend is weak. A dip to 200/199.40/199.20/198.75 /198/197.85/197.25/ 196.70/196.20/195 is possible.  Immediate resistance is at 201.30; a breach above this level targets 202/203.

Market Indicators ( 4-hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

Directional movement index -  Bullish

Trading Strategy:  Sell

 It is good to buy on dips around 200.30-32  with SL around 199.50 for a TP of 203.