German factory orders rise sequentially in October, manufacturing upswing likely to continue in coming year

German industrial new orders rose a bit in October. On a sequential basis, industrial new orders were up 0.3 percent. Even if this rise is mainly because of a rise in the always very volatile order intake of the “other vehicles” sector and the core size fell a bit, the order intake appears to stabilize. If one excludes this very volatile series, the result is a minus of 0.5 percent, which could hardly be described as a solid movement as well, noted Commerzbank.

In spite of the slight fall in the core component in the last two months, orders have possibly stabilized. These two falls were preceded by a solid increase in August, so that the October figure is slightly above the average for the third quarter. The stabilization could be seen in domestic orders and orders from abroad.

At present the auto industry is in focus because of the major problems associated with the changeover to the new WLTP standard for emission measurement and the resulting fall in new orders and production. Orders in this sector were up 4 percent in October on a sequential basis, implying that these problems might abate.

“The stabilization of manufacturing that is becoming apparent in incoming orders supports our expectation that the upswing will continue in the coming year”, added Commerzbank.

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