German trade likely to have rebounded in October

Germany’s trade is likely to have recovered in October. According to a Societe Generale research report, exports are expected to have grown 0.8 percent in sequential terms in October, whereas imports are likely to have risen 1 percent. The challenges from external demand have eased; however, external demand still seems to be fragile, with the exception of China where import demand has continued to increase steadily.

However, the exports outlook is expected to have improved from within the euro area as the rebound gathers strength. Net trade is still expected to contribute weakly to GDP growth in the years ahead, but the strength of domestic demand is likely to easily compensate for this. In October, trade surplus is likely to ease slightly to EUR 22.9 billion from EUR 24.2 billion in September.