Global Geo-political Series: Geopolitical ripples across the world as Trump set to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital

Ripples are being felt through the global geopolitical arena as various U.S. media reports and comments from U.S. officials suggest that President Donald Trump will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, breaking away from decades-old global and U.S. policies towards the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The decision is likely to come as early as Wednesday. On Monday, White House officials announced that President Trump will delay the decision to move U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, just like any other U.S. Presidents before him, who had kicked the can down the road since 1995 when U.S. Congress passed the law mandating the embassy be moved to Jerusalem. Both Palestine and Israel see Jerusalem as their rightful capital.

Several world leaders called on President Trump to warn against unilaterally recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

• The US president on Tuesday reportedly called Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders to inform them of his intentions. According to Palestinian President’s spokesperson, President Abbas warned of the dangerous consequences such a decision would have to the peace process and to the peace, security, and stability of the region and of the world.
• Jordan's King Abdullah II told Trump that such a decision would have dangerous repercussions on the stability and security of the region, according to a statement released by the royal palace.
• Saudi King Salman also told the US president that any American announcement regarding the situation of Jerusalem prior to reaching a permanent settlement will harm peace talks and increase tensions in the area.
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to cut diplomatic ties with Israel if Jerusalem is recognized as Israel’s capital.
• Federica Mogherini, the European Union's foreign policy chief reportedly said that any action that would undermine peace efforts to create two separate states for the Israelis and the Palestinians must absolutely be avoided.
• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also warned against such a move.
• Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's foreign minister, also warned that any US move to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel does not calm a conflict, rather it fuels it even more, and added that such a move would be a very dangerous development.

Despite the warnings, it is widely expected that Trump will move ahead with his decision defying world leaders, just like he has done many a time already. However, it is possible that he might not announce an overnight shift of embassy rather set a timeline for the move, which could send a sense of urgency to all parties for last-minute negotiations. He is expected to sign a national security waiver that authorizes him to delay the embassy relocation for now since the U.S. diplomats do not yet have a building in Jerusalem to move into, security arrangements or housing for diplomats.