Global Geo-political Series: Is Trump right in challenging Jerusalem status quo?

The U.S. President Donald Trump last week recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, which drew criticism from leaders across the world including allies like the United Kingdom, European Union, and Jordon etc. However, don’t let the wave of global criticism cloud you away from that fact that Trump might be right in challenging the status quo or at least partially right.

Let’s take a fresh look at the facts,

• First of all, though Trump took the decision to break the status quo, the United States has long recognized Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel. U.S. Congress passed the Jerusalem embassy act back in 1995 and urged the government to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This is a fact.
   
• Every President (Clinton, Bush, and Obama) since the 1995 Jerusalem Embassy Act deferred their decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel despite their campaign promises to do so for the sake of peace process, which involves negotiations between Israel and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which was recognized internationally and by Israel as a part of the Oslo Accord I, which was signed in Washington in 1993. The Oslo I was followed by Oslo II, sometimes known as Taba Agreement that envisioned the establishment of a Palestinian interim self-government in the Palestinian territories but fell short of the promise of an independent Palestinian state. Oslo II created the Areas A, B, and C in the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority was given some limited powers and responsibilities in the Areas A and B and a prospect of negotiations on a final settlement based on Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338. The Accord was officially signed on 28 September 1995. Several additional agreements were concluded following Oslo II, but negotiations did not produce a final peace agreement. These are again all facts, which Trump summarized saying that 22 years of delay in 1995 Jerusalem Embassy Act failed to produce lasting peace.  
   
• In his recognition speech, Trump said that Jerusalem is the home of Israel's parliament, the Knesset; its Supreme Court; the residences of its Prime Minister and President; and the headquarters of many of its government ministries.  Jerusalem is where officials of the United States, including the President, meet their Israeli counterparts. These are again facts, which brings us to the crucial question If Israel has full control over Jerusalem, how can Palestine have it as its capital. With Israel, a nuclear-powered state ready to defend what it calls as capital, is there any possibility of two states, if Palestine wants Jerusalem.

It is important to note that President Trump cleared that “The United States continues to take no position on any final status issues. The specific boundaries of Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem are subject to final status negotiations between the parties.  The United States is not taking a position on boundaries or borders…….our greatest hope is for peace, including through a two-state solution, if agreed to by both sides.”

There was simply no hope for a lasting solution if the status quo is not broken. With Trump breaking the quo, now there is a real opportunity for change, for the better or worse. If Trump can extract concessions from Israel in exchange for his recognition, there is a real chance of a peace in the region. Nevertheless, it is a dangerous gamble with lots of hardliners ready to take extreme actions over the issue. It is not certain that Trump’s action would prove to be a success but maintain the status quo was a failure for sure.