Global crude refinery inputs rose 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter but remained 5% below a year earlier, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, citing Kpler data, after regional supply disruptions.
The Q3 increase followed a 4.8 million b/d drop in Q2, equal to 6% of global inputs. EIA linked that fall to crude supply losses associated with the Middle East conflict and disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
EIA says refinery processing often picks up in the second and third quarters as maintenance winds down and plants prepare for seasonal gasoline and jet fuel demand. In 2025, inputs increased 0.3 million b/d in Q2 and two million b/d in Q3.
The recovery varied by country. China’s inputs declined 2.1 million b/d in Q2 and another 0.8 million b/d in Q3. India, South Korea and Japan together lost more than one million b/d in Q2, then regained 0.8 million b/d in Q3.
Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran also posted Q2 declines. Their combined inputs rose 0.4 million b/d in Q3. Russia’s inputs fell 0.6 million b/d in Q2 and a further 0.8 million b/d in Q3; EIA cited attacks on oil infrastructure among the pressures on Russian refining.
U.S. inputs increased 0.5 million b/d in each quarter as refiners exported more refined products. Kpler’s Aug. 8 analysis described different conditions across the industry: refiners outside disrupted areas raised runs amid strong margins, while crude shortages and facility damage limited processing elsewhere.
The strain extended to fuel availability. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global diesel and gasoil availability was 1.5 million b/d lower year over year in Q2 and 1.7 million b/d lower in Q3. The IEA also reported that diesel prices topped $200 per barrel at September highs, raising costs for goods and affecting real incomes, economic activity and inflation. The figures add to the diesel supply gap covered in earlier reporting.
In its October report, the IEA projected refinery runs at 81.3 million b/d in October, then 84.6 million b/d by year-end. These are forecasts, not reported results.
