Global geopolitical Series: Two-day OPEC meeting kicks off in Vienna

The much anticipated two-day OPEC meeting has started in Vienna, with energy ministers from all member countries including Qatar, which has recently announced its membership withdrawal from the group, have arrived.

Schedule:

• The first-day opening session kicks off at 10:00 am local time, which will be attended by all OPEC Heads of Delegation and Delegates, Secretary-General, Observers, as well as the members of the Press.
• After that, there would be a closed-door session that will begin around 11 am.
• The meeting is scheduled to last for at least 2 hours, after which, a press conference by OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkido is scheduled. This meeting is the 175th meeting of the OPEC council.
•  The second-day opening session would once again begin at 10 am local time and this time along with OPEC members, non-OPEC members led by Russia would also be in attendance.
• The two-hour closed-door session is expected to kick off at 11 am local time, after which there would be a press conference by the OPEC Secretary General. It is possible that Russia energy minister Alexander Novak would hold a joint press conference with the OPEC secretary.

What to expect:

It is widely anticipated that OPEC and non-OPEC countries would announce production cuts to the tune of a million barrels per day. Since January 2017, OPEC and non-OPEC countries have reduced supplies by 1.76 million barrels per day. In June, OPEC somewhat eased on production cuts as declining production in some member countries like Venezuela, Nigeria pushed the compliance to record high.

Qatar, which announced its exit just days before the meeting is likely to face harsh criticism over its decision to quit and its working to create a gas producers' cartel instead. 

However, after a brief rally should the OPEC cut production, we expect the oil price to decline further.