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Gold prices could climb to record highs in 2025 as investors seek safe havens during potential stock market volatility, UBS analysts predict. In 2024, gold surged 27%, peaking at $2,788 per ounce in October and setting an average annual price record of $2,389.
While a post-election rush into riskier assets after Donald Trump’s victory caused a brief sell-off, gold still posted its strongest yearly gain since 2020. Analysts note that a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields may weigh on gold prices in early 2025. A robust dollar increases the cost of gold for foreign buyers, while higher yields make non-yielding gold less appealing.
Recent economic data and Trump’s tariff plans have fueled concerns about inflation, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This shift has strengthened the dollar and lifted bond yields. Despite these pressures, gold’s role as an inflation hedge and portfolio diversifier is expected to sustain demand.
UBS analysts highlight the growing likelihood of frequent stock market volatility due to concentrated portfolios and high equity valuations. They anticipate strong gold purchases from central banks and investors less sensitive to interest rates.
By the end of 2025, UBS forecasts gold could reach $2,850 per ounce, supported by diversification demand and official sector buying. Gold remains a preferred asset for navigating economic uncertainties and inflation risks.
