Gold Prices Steady as Hormuz Tensions Fuel Fed Rate Concerns

Gold prices were largely steady on Friday as investors balanced renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz with hopes for a diplomatic solution, while assessing how geopolitical risks and higher energy costs could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) edged 0.03% higher to $4,242.07 an ounce, while gold futures were nearly unchanged at $4,300.26. Silver slipped 0.1% to $61.46 an ounce, and platinum declined 0.1% to $1,727.73.

Geopolitical uncertainty remained a key driver for precious metals after Iranian media reported that Tehran had attacked what it called hostile targets in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also reportedly plans to prevent U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the strategically important shipping route.

The escalation followed earlier comments from Iranian officials indicating that an Oman-mediated agreement to reopen shipping lanes was nearing completion. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed a major attack on Saudi-backed government forces, adding to concerns about a wider regional conflict.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects the war to end “pretty soon” and maintained that the United States remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold briefly moved above $4,300 on Thursday before giving up some gains. Investors remain concerned that prolonged disruptions in the Middle East could push energy prices higher, increase inflationary pressures and encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary policy.

Markets are pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a September rate hike following reports that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could support higher borrowing costs if inflation remains elevated. The U.S. Dollar Index remained near 100, providing limited direction for gold prices.

Attention now turns to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could reshape expectations for Fed policy. Chinese demand is also supporting bullion, with China’s gold-backed ETFs recording 14 consecutive sessions of inflows.

IG analyst Tony Sycamore sees support around $3,942 and said gold could target its 200-day moving average near $4,489. A sustained breakout above that level could strengthen the case for a longer-term recovery toward $5,000.