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Gold holds above $3000 as demand for safe-haven assets increases. It hit a fresh all-time high of $3027 and is currently trading around $3025.10.
Factors Driving Demand
In February 2025, Chinese gold ETFs also registered record inflows of RMB 14 billion (USD 1.9 billion) that caused the total AUM to rise to RMB 89 billion (USD 12 billion) and the holdings to their highest at 131 tons as a result of appreciation in the price of gold, improved economic indications, and governmental support that provided investor confidence and safe-haven demand owing to global economies' uncertainty. Apart from seasonal weakness in jewelry demand following Chinese New Year, investment demand was also robust, spearheaded by modifications to domestic investment regulations which further enhanced the availability of gold ETFs
Gaza Airstrikes
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas collapsed on March 18, 2025, when Israel launched intense airstrikes across Gaza, killing a minimum of 342 individuals, including children and women. The intense bombings, one of the deadliest since January, targeted highly populated regions. The renewed attacks came after talks collapsed and the rejection of American proposals to extend the ceasefire and release hostages by Hamas. The cost has been heavy, and Gaza's humanitarian crisis has become that much worse as a result of scarce resources. With negotiations stalled on trying to arrange a second phase of the ceasefire, and both parties positioning themselves for more military actions, international responses have responded in dismay, indicating just how precarious is peace within the region
Rate Pause Expectations Rise
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause on the Mar 19th 2025 meeting have increased to 99% from 96% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $2995 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $2975/$2956/$2920/$2900/$2880. The near-term resistance is at $3030, with potential price targets at $3050/$3100.
It is good to buy on dips around $3000 with a stop-loss at $2975 for a target price of $3100.
