Goldman Sachs, ANZ Cut Oil Forecasts Amid U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Hopes

Brent crude oil prices have tumbled more than 11% this week after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, raising hopes that the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical oil shipping lanes — could soon reopen to normal traffic. The development has prompted major financial institutions to rapidly revise their crude oil outlooks downward.

Goldman Sachs moved quickly to cut its second-quarter 2026 forecast for Brent crude from $99 to $90 per barrel, while its U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) projection was lowered from $91 to $87 per barrel. Despite the downward revision, oil prices partially rebounded on Thursday as traders weighed lingering uncertainty over whether the ceasefire would hold and whether the Strait of Hormuz would fully normalize.

Not all banks share the same cautious optimism. ANZ warned that recent supply disruptions have dramatically tightened the global crude balance, swinging the market from an early-year surplus into a sizeable deficit. The bank cautioned that between one and two million barrels per day of production capacity could face permanent or long-term limitations due to aging infrastructure, sanctions, and constrained export systems. If the supply recovery stalls, ANZ believes the market will need sustained prices above $100 per barrel to balance demand.

Other major institutions have also updated their outlooks in recent weeks. Macquarie projected Brent averaging $89.28 per barrel in 2026, while Morgan Stanley expects prices to hold above $80 for the remainder of the year. Barclays raised its Brent forecast to $85, noting that a prolonged Hormuz disruption lasting four to six weeks could push prices toward $100. More extreme scenarios from UBS and others suggest oil could spike to $120 or higher if shipping restrictions persist.

The situation remains highly fluid, with geopolitical risk continuing to drive volatility across global energy markets.