Goldman Sachs warns of rising China’s capital outflows

China alone sold US$41.3 billion US government debt in October, taking holdings down to US$1.12 trillion as of October, the lowest since July 2010. China has cut its United States government debt for five consecutive months, losing its title of the biggest foreign owner of US debt to Japan.

China’s capital outflows are accelerating and the central bank is selling larger amounts of foreign exchange, Goldman Sachs Group Inc warned as the yuan headed for its biggest annual decline in more than 20 years.

After the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate last week and added one rate increase to its outlook for next year, expectations for a stronger dollar have risen further. Capital outflows and yuan depreciation will continue or even worsen by the end of this year and the first quarter of 2017, as investors are getting increasingly concerned about a stronger dollar.

Analysts expect China to continue selling its dollar holdings but a mass sell-off may be unlikely as it is more important for China to keep ample firepower and maintain dollar reserves above the safety line to prevent a potential confidence crisis and safeguard economic stability.

“A re-enforcing mechanism between sentiment deterioration for domestic investors, capital outflow and currency depreciation pressure is the big challenge faced by the PBOC in the very near term, especially if USD strength continues,” JPMorgan analysts said in a recent research note.

PBOC is seen strengthening its daily fixing, sending a signal that it wants to slow the depreciation pace. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan midpoint/daily reference rate at 6.9312 compared to Friday's fix of 6.9508.