Goldman Sachs estimated Chinese gold buying at 148 metric tons from May through August, 83 metric tons above the People’s Bank of China’s reserve additions, reflecting different ways of measuring activity.
Goldman’s four-month estimate was 83 metric tons above the 65 metric tons in PBOC-reported additions. The spread equaled 128% of the reported increase. Goldman’s number estimates buying activity; the PBOC’s is the net change in China’s recorded reserve balance. The comparison does not identify a separate purchase beyond the PBOC’s recorded increase.
Goldman estimated 48 metric tons of Chinese buying in May, 40 in June, 35 in July and 25 in August. PBOC-reported additions were about 10 metric tons in May, 15 in June, 20 in July and about 20 in August. By August, the difference between the two monthly readings was about five metric tons; in May, it had been about 38. The intervening gaps were 25 metric tons in June and 15 in July. May and June together accounted for about 63 metric tons of the four-month spread, compared with roughly 20 metric tons across July and August.
The measures rely on different underlying records. Goldman’s estimate uses trading activity in London’s over-the-counter bullion market as an indicator of Chinese buying. China’s monthly reserve release, by contrast, reports the net movement in the official stock held by the PBOC. They can therefore produce different readings.
After the May-August period, the PBOC reported China’s reserves at 2,410 metric tons after a 23-metric-ton increase in September. That was the 23rd consecutive monthly increase in reported holdings.
In a separate global comparison, Goldman estimated 79 metric tons of central-bank buying in August, while publicly disclosed net additions totaled 39 metric tons. The global gap was 40 metric tons for August. Goldman said its estimate was about 4.6 times its cited pre-2022 monthly average of 17 metric tons. That broader figure covers central banks worldwide.
