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Gold pared most of its gains after the dovish Fed. It hit an intraday low of $3320 and is currently trading around $3346.
The Fed's Balancing Act: Policy Review and Economic Mandate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is presently charting its twin mandate of full employment and price stability, maintaining the federal fund's target range at 4.25% to 4.5% in the wake of recent rate cuts, as carefully balancing the risks of moving prematurely against moving too slowly. Alongside these ongoing policy choices, the Fed is undergoing its five-year review of monetary policy technique, concluding this fall in the summer of 2025. The review features public listening sessions and analysis to garner a variety of opinions concerning overarching subjects like whether the federal funds rate constitutes a proper benchmark of policy, whether average inflation targeting is quick-footed, reading the mandate of employment, and how understandable the forward guidance and communication have to be; the review wishes to refine the tools and practices of the FOMC and communicate to adapt to evolving economic challenges while continuing its dual mandate using tools such as adjustments of the federal funds rate, operations within open markets, and operating within the balance sheet.
Rate Hike Expectations: Market Sentiment Shifts
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of rate pause in June 18th 2025 meeting have increased to 83.20% from 41.80% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding below short term moving average 34 EMA and above 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3318 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3290/$3256/$3200/$3168/$3100/$3000. The near-term resistance is at $3350 with potential price targets at $3365/$3378/$3400/$3415/$3465/$3500.
It is good to sell on rallies around $3350-52 with a stop-loss at $3415 for a target price of $3005.
