Greece is projected to record fewer than 1.4 million births in 2027-46 amid lower fertility, according to research by Byron Kotzamanis, a retired professor of Demography at the University of Thessaly. ANA-MPA reported that the estimate assumes Greece will have no positive net migration.
The projected total compares with 1.8 million births in 2007-26. Kotzamanis expects births in 2021-30 to total no more than 700,000, down from 920,000 in 2011-20. He is also director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM).
Kotzamanis links the long-term decline in births to lower fertility across successive generations. Separately, he expects the number of women ages 25 to 44 to keep shrinking, though more slowly. He also expects the average age at childbirth to rise less sharply and fertility declines among younger generations to ease.
He cited a past reversal in Western and Northern Europe: women born during the interwar period had more children than their parents, contributing to the baby boom.
The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) counted 65,618 live births in 2025, 4.2% fewer than the 68,467 recorded in 2024.
