Quotes from Capital Economics:
- Tuesday's endorsement of Greece's draft reform list from Troika is a relief and reduces the immediate risk of a "Grexit". But Greece is certainly not out of the woods. Negotiations over the reforms could go on until the end of April. And only once final approval has been given will Greece's €7.2bn bailout tranche be released.
- Until then, it is unclear how Greece will finance itself, given that it has only a small cash buffer and a €1.5bn IMF repayment is due next month. There is also no guarantee that the reforms will raise enough revenue to satisfy the institutions in future reviews - they rely heavily on measures to combat tax evasion.
- The key point, though, is that this deal is just a stop-gap and nothing has yet been done to tackle Greece's unsustainable debt position. For now, the government has agreed to meet its obligations in full, but it seems clear that it will not be able to do so. With Germany, at least, vehemently imposed to any haircuts, a disorderly default and euro exit remains a distinct possibility in the future.
