Greece to pay back to ECB today

Today is pay day for Greece: the government in Athens will need to transfer € 3.2 bn plus interest to the ECB. In addition, the bridge loan of a bit more than € 7 bn, which kept Greece afloat for a few weeks until the adoption of the third bailout package, is also due today. 

The ESM will pay out the first tranche today, as the Dutch parliament (which was the last to vote) adopted the € 86 bn package last night. This first tranche will enable the Greek government to make the payments mentioned above. Another € 10 bn will go to the bank rescue fund to recapitalise Greek banks. 

The FX markets appear to think that, now that Greece is receiving new support, all problems are over. In fact, they have been quite unconcerned about the Greek situation since the ink has dried on the third bailout package. But they should be. Not just now, but they should keep the issue in mind. It will resurface some time in the future, at the latest when the next tranche is due. 

"Then, the Greek government will need to prove that it is implementing the harsh reforms which are part of the agreement. If it does not succeed, and that is indeed a possibility, seeing that the situation in the Greek parliament is quite difficult, the bargaining will start again", says Commerzbank. 

And even if the reforms are implemented, it is unclear whether there will be money for investments in the Greek economy after all debt service to the creditors is paid. For the moment, the FX markets can certainly put the Greek issue aside and focus on the Fed. But the Greek issue will resurface again and again and weigh on the euro.