Hong Kong holiday data distortion likely caused February’s CPI jump
Hong Kong will announce CPI data on 20 March.Standard Chartered notes its expectations as follows.... We expect headline inflation of 4.9% y/y, up from 4.1% in January, likely because the Lunar New Year fell in January l…
Standard Chartered notes its expectations as follows....
We expect headline inflation of 4.9% y/y, up from 4.1% in January, likely because the Lunar New Year fell in January last year and in February this year.
Services costs generally swing the most because of this difference. Average CPI inflation was likely c.4.5% y/y in January-February, indicating that inflation will probably trend lower as lower oil prices weigh on theutilities and transportation sectors.
However, food and housing still have the largest weightings in the CPI basket, and prices have been easing only very modestly recently.
We therefore expect CPI inflation to only gradually trend lower this year from its currently high levels.
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