Hong Kong’s export growth likely to have fallen further in March, trade balance to widen further

Hong Kong’s trade data for the month of February is set to release tomorrow. According to a DBS Bank research report, exports and imports of good is likely to have fallen further, by 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Although this is partially because of the usual Chinese New Year effect, the easing global economic growth and the ongoing trade tension between China and the U.S. might add downward pressure on the nation’s export performance in the coming months. This should be greatly reflected in the fifth straight year-on-year fall in trade finance.

“On import front, the potential improvement in retail sales (up 7.1 percent in Jan 19) may offset part of the decreases in imports, thanks to the positive wealth effect transmitted from the recent rebound in asset markets and the 20-year low unemployment rate. The trade balance is set to widen further”, added DBS Bank.