Hurricane Vance is forecast to lose hurricane strength and become post-tropical by Thursday morning, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) projecting a remnant low by Friday as winds decline.
In its 11 a.m. ET Sunday advisory (15:00 UTC), the NHC listed sustained winds of 65 knots and gusts up to 80 knots, with central pressure estimated at 989 millibars. Vance was near 14.3N, 103.8W, moving northwest at 4 knots.
The forecast has winds easing to 60 knots Sunday evening and Monday morning, then falling to 55 knots Monday evening, 50 knots Tuesday morning and 45 knots Tuesday evening. It keeps Vance at 45 knots through Wednesday, before projecting 40 knots and post-tropical status by 8 a.m. ET Thursday (12:00 UTC). By 8 a.m. ET Friday (12:00 UTC), the system is forecast at 30 knots as post-tropical or a remnant low.
The Thursday transition advances the timing from an earlier outlook that put the change on Friday, as EconoTimes previously reported. Historical verification shows average intensity forecast errors of about 15 knots on both forecast days four and five. Track forecasts have averaged errors of about 100 nautical miles on day four and 125 nautical miles on day five, according to the NHC.
The NHC scheduled its next advisory for 5 p.m. ET Sunday (21:00 UTC).