The NHC's latest forecast has Hurricane Vance weakening over the coming days and becoming post-tropical Friday, marking a continued decline from its 75-knot winds early Sunday.
At 5 a.m. ET Sunday (09:00 UTC), the NHC placed Vance's center near 14.3N, 103.4W. The storm was moving north-northwest at four knots, with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots, gusts to 90 knots and estimated minimum pressure of 980 millibars.
The forecast puts winds at 70 knots at 2 p.m. ET Sunday and 2 a.m. Monday, easing to 65 knots by 2 p.m. Monday. It projects 60 knots early Tuesday, 55 knots Tuesday afternoon, then 45 knots early Wednesday and 40 knots early Thursday. By 2 a.m. ET Friday, Vance is forecast to be post-tropical with 35-knot winds.
The updated timeline follows an earlier forecast for Vance to reach 35 knots by Thursday. The NHC's average track error is about 100 nautical miles on forecast day four and 125 nautical miles on day five; average intensity errors are about 15 knots on both days.
Ships operating within 300 miles of Vance's center were asked to send observations at three-hour intervals. The next advisory was scheduled for 11 a.m. ET Sunday (15:00 UTC).