The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.1% from 3.5%, putting it below the regional outlook while raising its projections for inflation and unemployment.
Published Oct. 13, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects 2.3% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026. The fund also lowered Argentina’s 2027 growth estimate to 3.5% from 4%. Its July update had retained the 3.5% forecast for 2026 published in April.
The IMF forecasts average annual consumer price inflation of 32.5% in 2026 and 21.2% in 2027. Its April projections were 30.4% and 15.7%, respectively. The latest outlook also puts unemployment at 7.6% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027, up from earlier estimates of 7.2% and 6.9%.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) reported a 2.9% drop in July economic activity from June after seasonal adjustment and a 1.4% decline from July 2025. Its survey of 31 urban agglomerations recorded a 7.9% unemployment rate in the second quarter.
Participants in a Sept. 28-30 survey by Argentina’s central bank expected the economy to grow 1.5% in 2026 compared with the 2025 average. That estimate is below the IMF’s revised projection.
The IMF approved Argentina’s 48-month, roughly $20 billion lending program in April 2025. In May 2026, the IMF board cleared the program’s second review and made about $1 billion available for immediate disbursement.
The fund has called for rebuilding reserves and expanding growth beyond energy, mining and agriculture. In a May statement on the program, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called for “well-targeted social support” for people facing near-term adjustment costs.
At an Oct. 1 briefing, the IMF said discussions toward a staff-level agreement on the third review were continuing. Its published schedule lists a drawing of 636 million special drawing rights (SDR) for that review, conditional on its completion and program requirements.
INDEC is scheduled to publish August economic activity figures Oct. 21.
