The International Monetary Fund’s latest projections keep Israel’s per capita GDP below Australia’s and the Netherlands’ through 2031 in current dollars, even after a strong second-quarter rebound.
The IMF’s October 2026 dataset puts Israel at $78,603 per person in 2028, compared with $80,039 in Australia and $83,740 in the Netherlands. For 2031, it projects $85,869 for Israel, $87,131 for Australia and $90,517 for the Netherlands. These are forecasts for full calendar years, not recorded outcomes.
Saul Sadka predicted in a post on X that Israel would pass both countries within 18 months. He did not specify a GDP-per-capita measure or explain his calculation, so the prediction is unverified. The IMF publishes both current-dollar and purchasing-power-parity measures; its current-dollar projections show no crossover through 2031.
Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimated that real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.4% in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to 3.6% growth from the previous quarter. Its third estimate, released Oct. 18, put the first-quarter contraction at a 1.5% annual rate. CBS said further revisions are possible and set Nov. 16 for its next estimate.
The Bank of Israel’s October forecast projects total GDP growth of 5.6% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2027. Excluding production abroad, its forecasts are 3.4% and 5.1%. The bank estimates that overseas production accounted for 5.8% of GDP in the second quarter of 2026 and would contribute 2.2 percentage points to growth in 2026 and 2.4 percentage points in 2027. It cautioned that the contribution estimate is uncertain by at least 1 percentage point in either direction.
The bank defines this activity as Israeli companies producing goods for overseas sale through foreign subcontractors or affiliates. It says the production uses neither Israeli labor nor domestic capital. Much of the income goes to foreign shareholders, while Israel receives some corporate tax revenue.
