Indonesian GDP growth likely remained stable at 5 pct in Q4 2019 – DBS Bank

Indonesian fourth quarter GDP data is set to release tomorrow. According to a DBS Bank research report, the economic growth is likely to have remained stable at 5 percent on resilient domestic demand, underpinned by easing of monetary policy, stable inflation, and exchange rate and commodity prices.

Consumption is expected to have remained stable. The index for consumer sentiment has bottomed, after an uptick in retail sales after the continuous slowdown since the second quarter of 2019. Auto sales have recovered, including motorcycle which saw negative growth earlier. Imports of consumption goods have also risen, underpinned by a stronger rupiah. Investment indicators are mixed. PMI continued to be in contraction territory but has picked up.

“Direct investment realization was higher-than-expected, growing at 12.2 percent in 2019. Raw material imports accelerated. Domestic demand remains stable YTD”, added DBS Bank.