Iran Nuclear Deal at a Crossroads: NPT Exit Looms

As of June 17, 2025, the future of Iran's nuclear program is uncertain and in doubt. A bill that would force Iran to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement (NPT) is being considered by Iranian lawmakers, a move that may be in the early stages but indicates growing tensions. Even so, Iran maintains its official stance against nuclear weapons, with President Pezeckian citing a religious decree from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Israel has been conducting bombing operations against Iran in recent weeks, as it claims that these attacks are a response to Iran's apparent progress towards nuclear weapons capabilities. Iran's non-compliance with its NPT commitments has been officially reported by the IAEA, which is a further complicating issue.

The United States and Iran are engaged in negotiations that resumed in April 2025, but they are plagued by significant disagreements. Iran has suggested a step-by-step approach that involves temporary reductions in uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and the reinstatement of international inspections, while maintaining its right to enrich its own resources. In contrast, the US advocates for the transfer of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to a third country and the complete shutdown of its enrichment facilities, which Iran has refused. Although Iran condemned the latest US proposal, it has expressed its intention to present a counteroffer, stressing that there are still gaps in reaching securing uranium enrichment levels and expanding the scope of sanctions relief.

Following the US withdrawal in 2018 and Iran's non-compliance, the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that initially restricted Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief is effectively gone. Iran has moved beyond the limits of JCPOA in terms of enrichment, and according to IAEA standards "sufficient for a number of nuclear bombs," but with recent Israeli airstrikes on Natanz and Iranian renewed focus. Natanz's radiation levels are considered normal by the IAEA, but regional tension remains high and there is still concern for a potential nuclear deal that could be reached in late 2020.