JPMorgan Lifts Gold Price Forecast to $6,300 by End-2026 on Strong Central Bank and Investor Demand

JPMorgan has raised its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to an ambitious $6,300 per ounce, reinforcing its bullish outlook on the precious metal despite recent market volatility. The bank points to sustained and strengthening demand from central banks and investors as key drivers behind its revised gold price prediction.

Gold prices, along with silver, experienced sharp pullbacks late last week after rallying too quickly to overextended levels. This correction was partly triggered by a rebound in the US dollar. However, JPMorgan analysts emphasized that the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop continues to strongly favor gold. They argue that the long-term rally momentum remains intact and that gold benefits from a structural diversification trend that is far from complete.

A major factor supporting the higher gold forecast is robust central bank gold buying. Official sector purchases reached around 230 tonnes in the fourth quarter alone, bringing total central bank demand for 2025 to approximately 863 tonnes, even as gold prices surged above $4,000 an ounce. Looking ahead, JPMorgan expects central banks to buy roughly 800 tonnes of gold in 2026, driven by ongoing reserve diversification away from traditional currencies.

Investor demand has also accelerated meaningfully. The bank highlighted rising gold ETF inflows, strong physical bar and coin demand, and increased portfolio allocations to gold as a hedge against inflation, currency risk, and geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts led by Gregory Shearer noted that gold continues to function as a dynamic, multi-purpose portfolio hedge, with investor interest exceeding previous expectations.

Despite acknowledging that gold’s rapid ascent has made the rally feel stretched, JPMorgan pushed back against concerns of an imminent collapse. Their analysis suggests demand levels remain well above the historical threshold required to tighten the market, even at elevated prices.

On silver, the outlook is more cautious. Without central banks acting as consistent buyers, analysts warned of potential near-term volatility and a deeper shakeout relative to gold. Still, JPMorgan sees a higher long-term floor for silver prices, estimating a range of $75 to $80 per ounce and expecting fundamentals to gradually rebalance supply and demand over time.