Japan Core Inflation Seen Steady in May Ahead of BOJ Rate Hike

Japan’s core inflation rate likely remained unchanged in May, signaling that price pressures are still below the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target despite rising energy costs and expectations of further monetary tightening.

According to a Reuters survey of 16 economists, Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes energy prices, is projected to have increased 1.4% year-over-year in May. The forecast matches April’s reading, which marked the slowest pace of inflation growth since March 2022. If confirmed, inflation would remain below the BOJ’s target for a fourth consecutive month.

Economists noted that while food price inflation continues to moderate, energy-related factors are helping prevent a further slowdown in overall consumer prices. Keisuke Kobayashi, an analyst at MUFG Research & Consulting, said the decline in energy prices has eased due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, helping keep the annual inflation rate stable from the previous month.

Looking ahead, analysts expect higher fuel costs driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict to push inflation higher in the coming months. In response to rising energy expenses, the Japanese government recently approved a supplementary budget worth approximately $19 billion to help reduce the burden on households and support the economy.

Market participants are closely watching the Bank of Japan’s upcoming two-day policy meeting, which concludes next Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, while signaling its willingness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation risks increase further.

Additional economic data points to growing cost pressures. Japan’s wholesale prices climbed 6.3% in May compared with a year earlier, marking the fastest annual increase in three years. Businesses continue to pass higher energy and import costs on to consumers, contributing to broader inflationary trends.

The official May CPI data will be released by Japan’s Internal Affairs Ministry on June 19. Investors will also monitor the USD/JPY exchange rate and BOJ policy guidance for clues about the future direction of Japan’s economy, inflation outlook, and interest rate trajectory.