Japan retail sales probably weakened y/y in March on a high base

Japan will release March retail sales data on 28 April. Retail sales is expected to increased 0.3% m/m, versus 0.7% in February. In y/y terms, they likely contracted 7.5% y/y thanks to last year's high base. 

Retail sales jumped 6.5% m/m or 11.1% y/y in March 2014 on frontloaded demand, just prior to the sales-tax hike in April 2014. 

Data released earlier this month suggests that chain-store sales and nationwide department-store sales contracted significantly y/y in headline retail sales followed a similar pattern. 

"We expect a gradual pick-up later this year on moderate wage growth and an increase in the number of tourist arrivals", Said Standard Chartered in a report on Monday