Japan’s next GDP, trade and inflation releases will give global investors new evidence ahead of the Bank of Japan’s December meeting, where officials will weigh the outlook for a further rate increase.
Japan’s Cabinet Office is scheduled to publish its first estimate for July-September GDP on Nov. 16. The Ministry of Finance will release provisional October trade statistics on Nov. 18, and the Statistics Bureau of Japan has scheduled nationwide October consumer price data for Nov. 20. The releases precede the central bank’s Dec. 17-18 policy meeting.
FXStreet reported Nov. 13 that DBS Group Research forecast real GDP growth of 0.8% quarter over quarter at an annualized rate in July-September 2026. It also attributed to DBS forecasts for October exports to rise 17% from a year earlier and the trade deficit to widen to 1.2 trillion yen. FXStreet said DBS cited AI-driven exports and consumption supported by wage growth, and expected the data to strengthen the case for a 25-basis-point rate increase in December. These are forecasts; the GDP and October trade releases are still pending.
Recent official figures provide a comparison. Japan recorded a 556.5 billion yen trade deficit in September, as exports increased 16.5% and imports rose 18.9% year over year, Ministry of Finance data showed.
The latest nationwide consumer price index (CPI) reading was for September: the Statistics Bureau of Japan reported a 2.1% year-over-year increase overall and excluding fresh food, while the measure excluding fresh food and energy rose 2.4%. The bureau’s preliminary October data for Tokyo showed headline inflation at 2.8%. Tokyo’s measures excluding fresh food and excluding fresh food and energy were both 2.6%, compared with 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively, in September. EconoTimes previously covered the September CPI figures.
On Oct. 30, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) set its overnight call-rate guideline at around 1.25%. Its October outlook said it would continue raising the policy rate if its economic and price outlook materialized, while assessing timing and pace against activity, prices and financial conditions. The outlook also cited oil prices and yen depreciation as factors that could add to consumer prices.
