Japan's export growth probably grew up in September

The total trade amount seems to be growing, but this is only because most settlements are done in USD and the settlement amount is pushed up due to yen depreciation. Trade in volume is likely to have decreased in September. 

Export growth was probably pushed up by front-loaded export orders over the first 20 days of September (preliminary data indicates +5.1% yoy during the first 20 days of the month) ahead of the exceptionally long holidays that took place at the end of the month. 

"With oil prices having fallen rapidly, terms of trade are improving, leading to a shrinking trade deficit. Exports in September are expected to have grown by 3.8% yoy (3.1% yoy in August), while imports likely shrunk by 7.1% yoy (vs -3.1% yoy in August)", says Societe Generale. 

If export growth over the last 10 days of September were weak, there is a downside risk to the September forecast. 

BoJ governor Kuroda explained in a press interview following the 7 October BoJ meeting that exports are expected to remain more or less flat for the time being, but after that, they are likely to increase moderately, as the emerging economies move out of their deceleration phase and also thanks to the yen depreciation in the past.