Japan's trade balance likely turned negative again in April

Japan will release April trade data on 25 May. Exports and imports are likely to have grown 5% and 1.5% y/y, according to Standard Chartered. The trade balance likely turned to a deficit of JPY 504bn from the March surplus of JPY 227.4bn. Exports to the US and ASEAN (Japan's third-largest export destination) likely  remained solid, while exports to China may have stayed sluggish due to slower growth in China. Imports have dropped sharply since late last year mainly due to the fall in global energy prices. Japan's trade balance turned positive in March for the first time in almost three years. In Q1-2015, the trade deficit narrowed to JPY 1.4tn from JPY 5.1tn in Q1-2014. 

The trend is expected to continue in H2-2015 and see the trade balance improving gradually this year, with increasing gains in the current account balance.