Prediction-market traders gave Texas Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa a 40% chance of defeating Gov. Greg Abbott on Kalshi Monday, putting data-center policy in focus ahead of Tuesday’s election.
CNBC reported Abbott remained the favorite on Kalshi, with a 60% chance of winning. Hinojosa stood at 39% on Polymarket. Her odds had been 8% on Kalshi in mid-July and 5% on Polymarket in late July, CNBC reported.
Polls offered different snapshots of the contest. A University of Houston Hobby School survey put Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 46%; a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey had Hinojosa at 49% and Abbott at 48%. That one-point lead was within the survey’s 3.34-percentage-point margin of error, according to earlier EconoTimes coverage of the Texas governor polls. Market odds reflect trading activity, a different measure from survey responses.
The election is also drawing attention as a possible test of opposition to data-center expansion. CNBC reported that political observers are watching for signs of a backlash against the industry in the 2026 midterms. Hinojosa has criticized Abbott’s previous support for data-center projects.
Hinojosa’s campaign website calls for an immediate moratorium on data-center development until lawmakers establish rules for the industry. In November 2025, Abbott promoted Google’s $40 billion investment in Texas, which included three data centers, and called the state the “epicenter of AI development,” CNBC reported.
Abbott ordered an audit in August of data centers seeking connections to the state’s power grid. In September, he halted approvals for data-center-related permits pending an audit of the existing waitlist, CNBC reported.
CNBC reported that more than 7.7 million Texans had cast ballots. In-person early voting ended Friday. Hinojosa could become the state’s first Democratic governor in more than 30 years. CNBC also says its relationship with Kalshi includes efforts to attract customers and a minority investment in the company. Texans vote Tuesday, Nov. 3.
